Topic: Future residential house

Final report type: 90% paper, 10% design

Explanation: The basic idea of this project is to learn about future residential buildings and trying to design a sample model. The model will only be used to help to give a clearer explanation for the future building, and the evaluation paper for it will be short.  

Introduction

• Background of future buildings
• Why are we curious about future buildings? (Motivation)

Nowadays’ residential houses

• What can the current houses do for the hosts?
• What needs to be improved? and how?
• What improvements are in progressing? and how?

Future residential houses

• What can we expect for the future houses?
• Different ideas from the professionals (the architects, engineers, constructors, and owners) and from the public (who are the customers, the other major students and any other).
• What are the common parts of the ideas?
• What are the different parts of the ideas?
• Challenges

Discussion

• The main aspects of improvements:
• The exterior of the building (Architectural ideas)
• The house system with database controlling (Engineer ideas)
• The environmental friendly control of the building (Scientific, Environmental engineer, and public ideas)
• Group members’ thoughts about future residential buildings based on the above information.

Model

• Pictures showing the sample BIM model designed by the group members with simple explanations.
• The evaluation of the BIM model.

Conclusion

• Summary
• Difficulties while doing the project
• As a future engineer, what will we do for the future residential houses?

The reason why we choose to talk about the building in 10 years is because our group is so curious about the changes in future. We watched a lot of videos in class, and also find many information related with the designs in future. There things are so interesting, and as architectural engineers we really need to be familiar with new BIM technologies. Therefore, we chose this topic, and set some requirements for ourselves.

In our project, we mainly focus on the future buildings; how does the technology, and material will affect the future buildings. Like, in 10 years, the building will be more convenient with all voice or mobile control, and maybe the AI is going to be used in the buildings. And, maybe some new materials will be used to change shapes as the owners' wishes. Therefore, in our project, we will build a simple model with BIM-Revit, and the most of information will be displayed on writing parts. And in our report, there will be five main points: background information, imagination of future buildings, model description, discussions and conclusion. And for the model, floor plans, sections, and 3D view are necessary. Our primary goal is to design a 2,500 square feet and 2-story house in future 10 years based on our research and imagination.

In the discussion, I think my group will talk about the different design concepts in the future and how does the systems change and vary ways to control the system. Also, we may talk about environmental ideas: how to make the building become more environment friendly and how to make the building has the minimum energy consumption. And at last, we will put each members’ opinions about the changes in 10 years later, and to put evidence why these imaginations are possible.

At the end of report, the summary and challenges will be provided. From our thought, the most difficult parts will be the new technology may be created, and how does the construction area changes, robotics.

Comments:

Hanyan, I really like your idea about the BIM. With development of technology, the creativity and innovation are necessary for every designers and engineers. Because the owner will have more and more requirements. and once the designers and engineers want to meet these requirements, creativity and innovation are important.

Alec, your post is interesting. As we known, robotics is one of most important things in the future which will affect a lot of areas, and it’s also going to change intelligent building area a lot. Because we talked about in class, the robotics will release intensive labors, and with enough energy robotics can work 24 hours a day. Moreover, some robotics have already been used in our life. For example, the cleaning robotics, cooking robotics, and construction robotics.

B4 - Project Outline

Topic: Development of BIM and Impact on Residences

Team member: Hanyan Chen, Yidi Li

Type of project: Paper

Outline

1. Introduction
1. What is BIM
2. How does BIM work
2. History of BIM
1. The Beginning
2. Development
3. Why is it important
1. Advantages, benefits in Construction and Design
2. Disadvantages
4. Why is it important to Residence
1. Current application of BIM in Residential Design & Construction
5. Impact of BIM to Residence
1. On Design Style
2. On sustainability (Adaptable Housing)
3. On Construction
4. On Real Estate Industry
6. Future of BIM
1. Brief description of future of BIM
2. Implementation of BIM
3. Challenges BIM might encounter
7. Conclusion

The topic of our project will be Development of BIM and Impact on Residences. Residence is a type of building that relies most on individual preferences. Therefore, the adaptivity of the house becomes the biggest challenge for designing and constructing a residence. “More creative and innovative perspective on designing residential buildings which will accommodate adaptability is needed to enhance building performance, through design concept for adaptable residential buildings (Raji and Gomez, 2012).” “A sustainable building is not a building that must last forever, but a building that can easily adapt to change (Graham, 2006)” BIM can help architects to provide multiple iterations for different preferences. It also let the owner and designer to create different phases of a project, which gives a future assumption of the project. In this case, it gives the owner ability to track over time how the project or assets changes and what changes can be made in the future based on his or her own preference.

In the paper, we will discuss the history or development of BIM and current applications in residential design and construction. We will also talk about the importance of BIM in the industry while addressing the advantages and disadvantages. Then, we will discuss the impact of BIM to residences in aspects of design style, sustainability or adaptability, construction and real estate industry. In the end, we will look into the future of BIM and challenges that BIM might encounter.

Comments: 
Yicheng Li, 
I really like the villa you chose to model. It is a great model to start with and the work you have done is pretty neat. I am really excited to see what the model will be at the end and what you have improved, both for the model and your skills of Revit.
Ren, 
I really like your topic with healthcare building design. It is an aspect that is important but being neglected. As our project doing BIM for residences, I am looking forward to see what is the difference between these two types of building.
Weiyi Tang, 

The topic of future residential house is really interesting, and it is great to have a model built up to show a better explanation. I am looking forward to see how it looks like and compare to what we researched as the development of residences by the influence of BIM.

B4:Group project_Future residential houses

Group project outline link

  The basic idea of this project is to learn about future residential buildings and to try to design a simple model. The propers of this project is to know how convenience the future residential house can be and what we as the future engineers can do to realize these ideas. In the final report, there will be two parts-90% of the research results and discussion about the future residential building and 10% of a BIM model for showing a better explanation for the future residential building. For the first part, the research results for the current buildings and future buildings will be displayed, the discussions, and the personal thinkings from the group members for the researching results. The discussion will focus on three aspects: the exterior, the house system with database controlling, and the environmentally friendly building, which specific for the energy saving and zero construction waste. For the BIM model, the 3D model, the floor plans, the elevations, and the sections will be showing in the report. This model will only be used to explain the idea, so the evaluation of the BIM model will be concise. BIM tools- Revit and Formit will be our tools to create the models. The models' properties are initially assumed: 10 years later, this four-people residential house will be located in Philadelphia, PA, USA. This house will be a 2,500 square foot two-story building with one-car parking and one storage. 

  Since there are three members in this group, labor separation is necessary for this relatively large project. Generally, every member should write about the personal thinking of the researching results. I will in charge of the current residential houses, and the model designing on the Revit and Formit. Chun Ming Tse will research the future residential buildings, and assist to draw the Revit model. Lin Qiaodanthe will be responsible for the discussion and conclusion. The research will be taking place on the Drexel online library, Prof. Mitchell's shared Evernote, and the Google search. As an example, here is the first piece of information for this project: link.

Comments:

Alec Silverstone: 

Your idea is very interesting. The robots will definitely play an essential role in the future intelligent building. Actually, some of the robots have already started to show their abilities for current buildings. The only thing I am worried about is your 3rd part of the report-the intelligent building design. Are you only going to talk about only the intelligent building? Or are you going to focus on the robotic technology-related story with the intelligent building? If you are doing the first one, won't that be abrupt? If you are doing the second one, I think you can combine this to the 2nd part of the report.

Christain Tait:

I am also interesting about the AR. I think AR is much more efficient than the 3D printed models because the size of the printed model is fixed, the editing of the model is tough and for some aspects, it is not accurate. And the 2D printed BIM models, those are showing the limit faces of the building and they are not intuitionistic. The AR can solve all these problems and even do better. However, currently, the AR model is only an idea so it may take a long time to come to be the truth.

Wenhan Fu:

Yes, you are right, future buildings will develop to be the intelligent building and the environmentally friendly building. I think these two parts cannot be separated, because saving the energy and environment is being the main part for a lot of other categories, for example, the vehicles-Tesla. You can start your research from the existing environmental friendly buildings, the environmental friendly certifications, such as BEAM Plus in Hongkong, LEED, BREEAM, and WELL.

Blog 3

I believe that in the future it is definitely possible for something to overtake BIM but I feel that future is far out. Even while these programs are being developed BIM will also be advancing until it reaches a cap on its usefulness and the the other programs will really start to make headway. I feel like the focus for the next 10 years will be directed towards interoperability for BIM and databases for other programs. In regards to BIMs interoperability there are already several different types of programs that can be used together. The further they are developed the more information that will be able to  transfer between programs. Information like material properties will being carried between programs makes work much more efficient allowing time to be spent in other places. The information provided by this type of program is stagnant which is why Bill Allen suggests the future is coming quick. By having a database that can take into account future results of construction with a better rate of success buildings can be created more efficiently and with a higher standard of living. It will be possible to monitor how fluctuating temperature or storm patterns may affect a buildings structure. It is also possible in the future that the monitoring of structural stability and air quality will become regulated. Putting sensors on buildings to gather the data of failure then using that for future project design will help create better buildings. I think the widespread usage of these data programs is in the future but it is farther out then Bill Allen predicts and I expect to see BIM advance to its peak in that time instead.

Comments:

Richard, I am not familiar with the programs Dynamo and Grasshoper but as you mentioned in the future it will be good to keep an eye on them. I feel that Revit has a vast potential and it is good that you could grow your knowledge of it while on co-op. I am a little skeptical on the use of these programs in the next 10 years but agree that robotics is farther off.

Jacklynn, In my post I also agree with the fact that for the next 10 years BIM will be the priority. The application of your work experience speaks volumes towards why BIM is the thing to look for in the next 10 years. I think that after this time period will be the turning point when BIM starts to fall behind.

Sean, It is good to see that you are taking an interest in the algorithms mentioned by Bill Allen because they will in no doubt become relevant at some point in your career. I find the drawbacks to the use of design in repetitive buildings being an interesting limiter to the capabilities of these database programs. I still personally believe that 10 years may be a bit soon for all of these programming changes to transpire.

Blog post 3 - Technology in the AEC industry in 10 years

The technology used in the AEC industry has developed a lot since the computer became a common tool for everyone at the office. BIM have been implemented more and more, though in different levels. But the fully opportunities that BIM can give for the architects, engineers, contractors, and building owner are still only used few places compared with how large the trade is. How it will develop during the next 10 years is a very good question. I think that the implementation of programs like Revit will be larger and it will be a tool that almost very one in the trade will use during the next 10 years. The program have  been on the market since 2000 and is now taught for both architects and engineers at the universities as a necessary tool to know. So with young graduated engineers and architects working in the field during the next 10 years more and more will have the ability to use the tools and companies will have to use less money on training the employees. Though the license are very expensive so the company have to know how much time and money they can save by using the tool, before they invest in the program.

Though I think that the fully implementation of tools like Rhino/Grasshopper and Dynamo in the AEC industry will take more than 10 years. When the industry still have not fully have implemented Revit yet, which has been on the market for almost 20 years, I think it will take more than 10 years to implement the next steep of BIM. But I think that more and more people will start using the tools and see the many opportunities it can give to optimize e.g. the design, geometry, materials, and time. Maybe the implementation of the tools will develop in relation to the larger focus on sustainability, because the tools can be used to minimize the materials for the building and do integrated design easily. But I think it really depends on the size of the projects. For a large project the time which is put in the building up the models can be a large saving in the  end because it will be easier to change the parameters. But for a smaller project the time and money probably will not be saved in the end because only few changes will be made during the design, which could be done without the tools.

So to sum up my assessment of where the technology for the AEC industry will be in 10 years I think that Revit will be almost fully implemented but the next step of using the dynamic and parametric tools like Rhino/Grasshopper and Dynamo will take more than 10 years to fully implement in the industry.

Matt Mullen: Interesting that you also can use VR walkthroughs as a tool to minimize changes orders given by the owners, because they can see the walk around in the building before it is built. I think that also shows that more and more tools are being developed to investigate problems before they occur.

How Far Can BIM Go In 10 Years?

This assignment required students to watch a video “The Future of BIM Will Not Be BIM—and It's Coming Faster than You Think” by Autodesk University, discuss it amongst groups and then share with the class, and then formulate individual ideas. The question to keep in mind is how relevant BIM is to engineering design and how advanced can it get in 10 years.

The video showed some of the state-of-the-art uses for BIM and how much easier designing architecture would be if more softwares were incorporated. The expression of more fluid shapes were possible within a computer. This combined with the iterative design process generated by a computer opens up many possibilities of architecture.

AI may be usable as an architects inspiration but it may not replace their sense of aesthetic. AI may not be able to produce something that is attractive to the human eye. What I mean is that the architects of old created art with the human fascination in mind. It may be difficult for AI to achieve the same results. However, an architect may be able to manipulate BIM and AI to create art.

In the engineering design process, I believe that within 10 years, we may see competitive engineering firms use automation to quickly generate ideas for clients. As the interoperability between different softwares increases, so does the speed of engineering design. However, it will be a pretty big investment. The training required to get everyone in the company to proficiently use BIM in several softwares will be rigorous. In the case where software proficiency is not widespread, the job market will be more focused toward hiring individuals who have practiced BIM and automation.

On the manufacturer side of construction, I can see the advancement of CNC machining to create the complex shapes that are generated in BIM. However, I can see that some CNC machinists may lose their jobs if a computer can accomplish the same results.

Architects, engineers, and contractors need to learn BIM for it to truly be useful.


Comments on colleagues’ posts:
Alec Silverstone
Your idea that the incorporation of this AI iterative design in BIM will come with setbacks is something that I believe will happen. It’s simply the way that new technology works. It may take several years just to convince higher-ups that technology is worth investing into and then training staff to use it proficiently. That being said, I like the way that the AEC industry is heading. However, it means that the way undergraduates are being taught will need to change as well.

Harvin Bhandal
I still believe that the smaller companies will hold onto orthographic drawings in AutoCAD rather than move onto BIM. The question arises is how useful is BIM if the client does not want a commercial building but something more specific like a power plant. In this case, the structural integrity is all that matters. Other small firms may choose to take a smoother transition by hiring a few people who are capable of BIM and have them work with senior staff. This is how I imagine small firms proceeding.

Matt Mullen
I can see VR/AR being the standard to advertising a product to clients. If everyone involved with the building is well-versed with BIM, there may not be as many conflicts during construction. I would also like to see the construction industry make the leap and perform at a higher speed and efficiency.

B3 - Future of BIM

From personal experience, I think BIM will be made the priority for training in the upcoming 10 years. Right now, it seems like the majority of big firms are currently using some version of AutoCAD. I work at AECOM and we use CAD Civil3D every day and throughout all of our projects. Most of our clients still utilize CAD and require we work in it as well. While CAD is a great tool, it isn’t as intuitive as Revit or other software, which is why we are starting to see a push towards BIM.

Recently, our team has been required to go through Revit training for one of our clients. Through the training, the PM has been discussing the benefits and limitations of Revit. The main use we see for our team is the cohesion of all disciplines working in one document. This crucial change will allow companies to grow and complete projects more efficiently. Another aspect to BIM is how user-friendly and intuitive it is with users. The only drawback right now to Revit is the lack of compatibility in between versions. For example, I did my entire A.1 project at work on 2019. The school computers only had Revit 2018, so I had to redo the entire project because there was no way to save back or convert or open a later version of the software. Once this issue is taken care of, I feel that BIM will be prevalent in all offices with CAD only as a backup for companies that have not made the push to advancing technologies.

Aside from just Revit, BIM and robotics are making a push now to become more widely used. In 10 years, the benefits will outweigh the costs and limitations for companies and I feel like it will be the standard for firms.

Comments:

Hailey Ihlow – I agree with your post. I’m seeing more and more companies look into the benefits of using Revit vs. CAD. In later years, the companies that have already made the push into Revit will be pursuing other programs while the rest of the world plays catch up.

Hanyan Chen – I agree that the use of robotics in construction will be the future. Why would companies spend time and money on man power when the potential for robots to perform is there? Also the companies are liable for workers on a job, whereas should something fatal occur while the robot is working, it’s much less cause for lawsuits.

Nana Rasmussen – I’ve never worked with Rhino or Grasshopper, which is why I can see your point in companies spending time and energy to train employees. I think that when these programs are more widely accepted, universities will start spending time offering courses on these topics.

Implementation of BIM for Engineers in 10 years

I would like to write this blogpost from the discussion in class last week. As I was discussing with my group last week, I believed that the AI of BIM could be implemented for Engineers in 10 years. After the class discussion from the other groups, I did start to wonder if 10 years might be too short time.

From personal experience with Rhino and Grasshopper I briefly learned to use in a course back home at DTU (Technical University of Denmark), I believe that this technology and parametric design will fast be implemented in the industry. More and more Architectural Engineering firms in Denmark are beginning to use theses design tools for parametric designs, why I believe that it will become more and more implemented in engineering firms. On the other hand, I found the programs very difficult to learn due to the complexity of the spaghetti like structure in which you build the model. Some of my fellow classmates picked up on how to use the program very quickly and they are very good at using it. People like these will easily get a job within this field. As we were discussing in class last week, a problem for implementing this AI of BIM is the time and cost, which made me realize that 10 years might be a little too short time for it to be implemented properly. Another problem in having this implemented within 10 years is the steep learning curve that comes with new technology and software. This technology needs to be implemented more widely at universities so students that will be joining the labor market after school have learned this technology and can implement it in the engineering firms. Another issue is the older generation of engineers. They will probably find it more difficult to adapt to this technology, just like when Revit was introduced. Some firms and engineers still use AutoCAD instead of Revit. This I believe will also be the case for AI BIM technology; it is the new generation of engineers that will be implementing this technology to the industry. Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that I think 10 years is too short time, but AI BIM will be implemented more and more widely in the future.

Comments:

YIDI LI:

I also believe that BIM programs like Rhino and Grasshopper as showed in the video could also help make design decisions for reducing material cost and optimize a sustainable design. I agree that it will take more than 10 years to have this implemented.

Weiyi Tang:

I like how you describe the process of the 3D printing of houses and how it has developed. Here you say that you cannot predict how the 3D printing construction will go in 10 years. I don’t think that the Grasshopper and Dynamo will be fully implemented in 10 years. Yes, humans are making the decisions and the programs are providing the reasonable options, but the humans still have to learn to use and implement the technology and program, so I think it will take more than 10 years.

Jenny Fretta:

I also believe that BIM will have a significant effect on the productivity of building design in the future, from the experience from the past – how Revit has been implemented in many companies so far, making processes faster and less human errors.

Blog 3: The Future of BIM

In class last week we watched part of the youtube video, "The Future of BIM Will Not Be BIM—and It's Coming Faster than You Think”, in which Bill Allen discusses the current state of BIM, and where he believes the industry is heading in terms of automation and accessibility. One of the main questions he presents to the audience is, “ Can algorithms design a building?” He believes more and more work will be performed by computers and machines, and instead of building information modeling, we are going to see Building Information Optimization.

Mr. Allen explains the use of Building Information Optimization to expedite the design process by “feeding” the computer rules or constraints in design that have to be met, and the computer will construct the building’s optimal footprint, structural load capacity, and thermal performance.

I find the concept of algorithms that determine the optimal footprint of buildings extremely interesting, practical, and applicable to the entire industry, but it seems to me that it could remove an element of the human creativity process that is present in building design. While obviously these features will speed up the iterative design process, will the algorithms have too much control over the design that buildings begin to be repetitive to achieve streamlined efficient buildings? On the flipside of this argument, the algorithms could potentially create designs that an individual would have never had thought of. I believe the use of algorithms will be best used as a starting point where numerous potential designs are output by the algorithm, and then the design can be manually edited.

Allen believes that for the less niche designs, algorithmic building can be used effectively since the algorithms can mimic human behavior enough that the design options created will seemingly have no difference to designs manually created by humans. Additionally, with algorithmic design the number of design options output will be much greater than the number of outputs from humans while taking considerably less time.

In a more intermediate and current example, Allen brings up an example of how he has used graphical algorithmic modeling with Grasshopper to develop a family with complicated planar panels, in a very intuitive and graphically accessible way that does not require complicated coding or equation inputs. He refers to this creation as the “transition period”, before the computer algorithms will develop all of the design iterations on their own. I think graphical algorithmic modeling has more of a place in the coming years, than complete algorithmic modeling, where the computer creates the options for you, especially in the 3 to 10 year time frame which Allen proposes (this video is already more than 2 years old).

Source:
Allen, Bill . YouTube, The Future of BIM Will Not Be BIM—and It's Coming Faster than You Think, 23 Nov. 2016, www.youtube.com/watch?v=xq6yKyauu-o.


Comments:

1) Nick,

I agree that the algorithmic tools presented in the lecture have great potential in the speed and quantity of iterative design. It also seems to be applicable to any discipline so it will have a universal use in the AEC industry. To me, AI BIM seems to most functional and appropriate when the designs work cooperatively between the AI and human input. I think the biggest hurdle in the adoption of these programs is their cost, learning curve and accessibility for a slow adopting industry like the AEC.

2) Albert,

I agree Allen’s prediction for the state of AEC tech after BIM is unrealistic. In the video he says 3 to 10 years, and it is already 2 years since he gave that presentation. Interoperability and accessibility are huge hurdles for the industry, and it seems that unless both of these are very refined for these algorithm modeling programs, they will not be implemented in a practical way anytime any time soon. I appreciate your personal insight into the speed at which firms adopt new technology. The firms I worked at all primarily focused on Revit, but the idea that some companies are dragging their feet on Revit makes Allen’s prediction seem almost impossible for the majority of the industry in 10 years.

3) Weiyi,

Good points on the speed of implementation for software and technology, as well as reasons why technology sometimes seems to fade into and out of relevance. I agree that AI assistance can be a great boon for the AEC industry in terms of design optimization, as long as humans are making the final choice in the design. I think it will be a little hard to market completely computer design buildings to the general public for a while. The potential of this technology is remarkable. AI BIM can lead to increased efficiency and design speeds, and with that more time will be available for individuals to learn new skills or do other things for projects. It could completely change the way and quality of life for individuals in the AEC industry.

B3-BIM implementation in the future

From last week’s lecture, we watched the speech “The Future of BIM Will Not be BIM” from Autodesk University. Bill Allen talks about the future of BIM within the following 10 years, which will be a huge innovation in the AEC industry, and the iterative design will rapidly get into the way of automation.

The future of AI development could easily speed up the drawing phases and accelerate repetitive processes, which doing well on saving time and money for stakeholders. Programs like BIM could even be used to make decisions on choosing materials and narrow down the design choices since it integrates the design intent, engineering principle, and the site information. It will be utilized for bigger and complex projects and helps to check the design conflicts. From the BIM Handbook I read last week, it presents that BIM increasing the collaboration between architects and contractors. In design-build, BIM allows contractors to be involved into the progress since design stage to provide suggestions and cooperate on the design, which increase the productivity and efficiency of the entire team.

Automation will be developed rapidly in 10 years, and the popularity of AI programs will highly increase. I do think that the prospect of programs Bill Allen mentioned in the video will happen in the future; however, it may not be that fascinating for all workforce in AEC industry as a mainstream in only a decade. As a civil engineering student, I have heard about Revit, but I never got to use it before. Same for the students in mechanical engineering in our group. Civil engineers still use CAD as their primary implement from my co-op experience. Considering the popularization process of AutoCAD, which it was published in 1982 and used about 20 years to become the mainstream of design tool. Relative to AutoCAD, BIM is more technical, it will take more time to be developed among engineers in all the fields. During the discussion in our group, we thought there will also be a steep learning curve in the skills and knowledge of professionals with the technology for engineers. I do believe that the technologies explained by Bill Allen will be the future of AEC industry, but it needs more than 10 years for engineers in each field to cover up the gap, and to make the interoperability become practical between software.

Allen, Bill. “The Future of BIM Will Not Be BIM—and It's Coming Faster than You Think.” YouTube, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xq6yKyauu-o.

Comments:

Albert Hanan:

I cannot agree more that the steep learning curve for users would block the progress of the transition. It needs time for engineers like civil engineer and mechanical engineer to get into the BIM program, and to introduce BIM to all the engineers in high level education. However, I don’t see there are enough impetus for engineers and firms to make this transition in 10 years.

Nick Maloney:

I agree with you that the program Bill Allen mentioned in the video was very attractive, but there are many limitations can be thought of. The cost of BIM software you bring up in your post is very practical. I left this part over, but I agree it has significant impact on the propagation of BIM. As a civil engineering student, Autocad is enough for me to accomplish my work during co-op, and same for my colleagues. Then why should firms spend that unexpected money for that work they can handle?

Hailey Ihlow:

It is interesting to hear that engineers in all different age groups know some level of Revit in your office, which is totally opposite comparing to my co-op office. I guess the major difference is the job specification of the office. Architectural engineers do their work relay on Revit, but a large amount of civil engineers works with Autocad. It will be great to see that architectural engineers could lead this transition in AEC industry.

B3-How far will the AEC industry go in 10 years?

The computers used half-century to walk into ordinary people's life. How long will it take for the AEC industry? There was an advertising slogan for 4G (the fourth generation of broadband cellular network technology) when the 3G was commonly used several years ago-"The future is here." However, now, in China, 5G has already walked into our life. Therefore, the future is never far away from us. In Bill's presentation, I agree with his appointment that data optimization is the AEC industry's future. I believe that for one day, those AI BIMs and the robots will take an important role in the building designing process and take some jobs from the designers, but how long will they take? Ten years? Or another half-century?

About five years ago, the 3D printed residential houses were selling in some countries, which were high-efficiency for both money and time, and even environmental friendly since the printer was using construction wastes as the ink. However, for 2019, most buildings are still constructing by human beings. Why? It is because the technology for 3D printing houses is not progressed enough to receive the truths from the public. For the safety reasons, most of those 3D-printed buildings were dismantled in several months after built. It is improving, but not good enough. So we cannot predict how far the 3D printing construction will go in 10 years. 

For the Grasshopper and the Dynamo, which are the BIM programs that Bill mentioned in the presentation, since the sample programs have already been created, and they were only going to feed the applicable algorithmic modelings to the Revit and let the designers choose the model at the last, I am holding a positive viewpoint for their developments in following 10 years. Since human is still the object to make the final decisions, and the program itself is only providing reasonable options, this method is similar for nowadays’ AI working theory. Like the food delivery apps, it will help you to get rid of those far restaurants, the food you do not like, and show up all the options with a rated list. All you need to do is to choose your food at the last step. 

The AEC industry will realize the data optimization, but this will not come true instantaneously, and this might be a long journey so that it can be ten years, 20 years or a half-century. Haste makes waste, so nothing should go in a rush. The human beings already finished a lot of amazing pioneering works in 10,000 years, which is an extremely short period for the Earth, which is about 4.5 billion years old. Bill said in the presentation that we are fortunate for living now because many exciting things are happening. Future will be here, and the future will never be far away from us. 

Works cited:

Allen, Bill. “The Future of BIM Will Not Be BIM—and It's Coming Faster than You Think.” YouTube, uploaded by Autodesk University, 23 November 2016,   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xq6yKyauu-o

Comments:


Matt Mullen:

I agree with you that the VR walkthrough will be more popular than the 3D printing models in the future. One is because the VR will cost less money and the 3D printing models might create wastes. The other reason is that the 3D printed model is a static model and VR is an intuitionistic digital model, so if the model needs any change, VR walkthrough model is only going to change the alternative part while the 3D model is going to be rebuilt entirely.



Gabriel Grajewski:

I agree with you because I believe that to realize the data optimization will take a long time for the AEC industry, but I do not have an exact idea about how long it will be. Although they are progressing the data manipulation, the data gathering is still the central part of the AEC industry. Many examples, which Bill provided in the presentation, were the underlying ideas and samples. Therefore, the data optimization is not easy to be realized in only ten years.



Jenny Fretta:

Like you, I doubt that 3D printing will be used to construct an entire building ten years later. Because of the limitation of the materials, the development of the 3D-printing technique for the building was not fast in the past ten years. The limitation of the materials will still be a problem either before founding or creating new material or another printing method. Although the improving speed is ideal, the progress of it never stops. The road is 3D printable now, so it is sure that 3D printing will assist a lot for the construction in the future.

Blog Post 3: The Future of the AEC Industry in 10 Years

Bill Allen is the co-founder and principal at EvolveLAB BIM Consulting. It’s interesting that someone who is the co-founder of a BIM consulting company is already thinking about what’s next. It goes to show you that in order to be successful, you need to stay informed on the latest technology and embrace change. Bill showed how programs are already being implemented to create projects using algorithmic editors (Grasshopper and Dynamo). Algorithmic modeling allows us to create things that would be far too time-consuming using standard BIM technology. Bill’s advice is to prepare yourself for the future and get started by using the technology that is on the forefront today.

I believe that some construction companies will have begun embracing and implementing algorithmic modeling within the next 10 years. However, not every project will benefit from BIM and algorithmic modeling. 3D scanning and VR walkthroughs are already being used to both show owners what a new building will look like and what is inside an existing space. These technologies are extremely useful for very large projects/buildings, but some small projects are finished before a 3D model could be developed. I think that VR walkthroughs will become more and more popular in the coming years which will help to reduce change orders by giving the owner the opportunity to see exactly what the building will look like and could then make any changes to the design before construction even begins.

Above future technology, collaboration during both the design and construction phases will be improved. Owners will no longer communicate with subcontractors through general contractors who only talk to the architect after a problem arises with the design. There will be less RFIs because everyone will be on the same page throughout the life of the project. It will be very interesting to see how quickly buildings can be designed and constructed with everyone on the project collaborating from the very beginning of the project using algorithmic modeling and BIM. Much less time will be wasted designing buildings manually and changing different parts of the building from person to person. I think that larger construction companies will have the capital to invest and benefit from these future technologies on their large projects. Hopefully, they will lead the way to a more efficient construction industry with more affordable technologies.

Source:

1. Allen, Bill. The Future of BIM Will Not Be BIM—and It's Coming Faster than You Think. Youtube, 2016. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xq6yKyauu-o.

To Albert Hanan

Many of the applications mentioned by Allen are definitely being used today, but you make a good point that wide-spread adoption of these applications isn’t coming anytime soon. Many companies have a certain way of doing things and do not like change. I think that once one large company starts using future technology to get more jobs done faster and cheaper, other companies will catch on and be forced to adapt to compete for jobs. I agree that 10 years is a bit too optimistic, but 20-25 years is definitely possible.

To Harvin Bhandal

I have a similar experience from my co-op where you were told to avoid telling people that you could use AutoCAD and Revit because barely anyone knew how to use it and you would get stuck with everyone’s work. The construction industry is currently struggling to get older subcontractors to use iPads and cloud-based project management software so it’s hard to imagine even talking to them about data optimization. One way that has proven to be effective is making it mandatory to use certain technologies in the contract. This could definitely be used to speed up the adoption of future software.

To Gabriel Grajewski

You make a number of good points throughout your post and I like that you back them up with real-world experiences. The construction industry is notoriously behind on the latest technology and I’m sure data optimization will be no different. It is odd to even hear the words construction and data optimization in the same sentence, but we will get there eventually. I definitely agree that basic applications will be implemented within the next 10 years to work on large projects more effectively.  

The Future of BIM and AEC

Last week, we watched the first half hour of Bill Allen’s “The Future of BIM will not be BIM-and It’s Coming Faster than You Think” speech from Autodesk University. In the talk, Allen predicts that within the next 10 years the AEC industry will change drastically towards the way of automation and what he calls “Building Information Optimization.” Allen claims that “rather than manually drawing walls, doors, and columns . . . we will feed the computer ‘rules’ instructing us a building’s optimal footprint, structural load capacity, and thermal performance.” In short, Allen is hypothesizing that in 10 years, the AEC industry will be exponentially faster through automation and a drastic acceleration in computing power applied to BIM technologies. While I do believe that this is the future of our industry, I think that a ten-year time frame is rather optimistic and unrealistic.

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In my opinion, the technologies described in Allen’s talk aren’t that far off from existing now -- many of the applications he discussed are already being implemented. The issue is rather, disseminating these technologies and methodologies into modern practice. In my limited experience in the AEC industry, I’ve worked for a very large company (Jacobs Engineering), a very small firm (Larsen and Landis), and will be working for a mid-sized firm (EwingCole) this Spring. Each of those firms had their own practices with their own procedures, some of which were on the cutting edge, but many of which were on the antiquated side of the technologies available. Both firms I have worked for still primarily used CAD-based design (both AutoCAD and Microstation) rather than BIM, a technology that Allen is saying is beginning to fall by the wayside. While my experience and scope of knowledge is extremely limited (so take it with a grain of salt), to say that the norm of the AEC industry in ten years will be near complete automation of design, when international firms such as Jacobs are still using Microstation and AutoCAD rather than Revit for some of their larger projects seems like a dubious claim. Again, this is not to say that these technologies aren’t already being adopted (Kayleigh from Burohappold, for example, showed us how Dynamo accelerated her processes tenfold), but rather that I don’t see them being uniformly adopted within the next 10 years.

To be clear, I believe that the technologies explained by Allen are the future of the AEC industry. With the power of automation in design and the acceleration of computation power, it only makes sense that the changes he predicted will be adopted and become the norm soon. However, seeing how long it has taken the AEC industry to adopt simpler technologies such as BIM and drones it is hard for me to believe that these technologies will be the norm in 10 years. As the older company principals and industry leaders who have concretized their methodologies begin to retire and clear the way for newer/younger management, I predict that we will begin to see changes such as those described by Allen, I predict, within 20-25 years rather than 10.

Comments:

Alec: I think your comments expand upon the points made by myself and peers, and I agree with the difficulties of implementation that you bring up. I think the only place that we disagree is the premise that these technologies will be integrated into the AEC industry within 10 years. You say that they will but with very hard work. I agree that it will be difficult but personally, cannot see there being enough of a push among industry leaders to accept these new methods of design. I think there are still far too many industry leaders who do things "the way they've always done them" and have a certain mentality about design that I just don't see being overcome within 10 years.

Nick: I agree with your comments wholeheartedly. I think a critical point that you brough up that I forgot to address was that of money. It just doesn't make sense for smaller firms to get involved with automative products such as Dynamo when they seem to be doing fine with Revit or even AutoCAD. This idea makes me think back to the last firm I co-oped at, Larsen and Landis. The 12 person firm rarely did designs larger than a simple rowhome, and therefore, didn't need anything more advanced than AutoCAD for drafting. Why would a company like Larsen and Landis spend an exorbinant amount of money on a product like Dynamo, have to completely retrain their staff, etc. when they are already getting tons of business from Architects that like their current methods and their finished products?

Jenny: Interesting take. I did not even entertain the possibility of incorporating 3D printing into building design as it relates to programs like Dynamo, but I can certainly see that being a prospect in the distant future. Of course, automated processes and machine learning will have to catch up in the industry and become wholly adopted in the AEC industry, so much in fact, that designing buildings without any automation will be considered archaic, and only then do I think the technologies of 3D printing as it relates to building construction will be combined with automated design. Of course, in the time it takes for the complete adoption of automation in AEC, the 3D printing industry will make large leaps as well, leading me to believe that this could potentially be showing up in around 50 years time. We are still a way away, but I like your interest in 3D printing.