B3-How far will the AEC industry go in 10 years?

The computers used half-century to walk into ordinary people's life. How long will it take for the AEC industry? There was an advertising slogan for 4G (the fourth generation of broadband cellular network technology) when the 3G was commonly used several years ago-"The future is here." However, now, in China, 5G has already walked into our life. Therefore, the future is never far away from us. In Bill's presentation, I agree with his appointment that data optimization is the AEC industry's future. I believe that for one day, those AI BIMs and the robots will take an important role in the building designing process and take some jobs from the designers, but how long will they take? Ten years? Or another half-century?

About five years ago, the 3D printed residential houses were selling in some countries, which were high-efficiency for both money and time, and even environmental friendly since the printer was using construction wastes as the ink. However, for 2019, most buildings are still constructing by human beings. Why? It is because the technology for 3D printing houses is not progressed enough to receive the truths from the public. For the safety reasons, most of those 3D-printed buildings were dismantled in several months after built. It is improving, but not good enough. So we cannot predict how far the 3D printing construction will go in 10 years. 

For the Grasshopper and the Dynamo, which are the BIM programs that Bill mentioned in the presentation, since the sample programs have already been created, and they were only going to feed the applicable algorithmic modelings to the Revit and let the designers choose the model at the last, I am holding a positive viewpoint for their developments in following 10 years. Since human is still the object to make the final decisions, and the program itself is only providing reasonable options, this method is similar for nowadays’ AI working theory. Like the food delivery apps, it will help you to get rid of those far restaurants, the food you do not like, and show up all the options with a rated list. All you need to do is to choose your food at the last step. 

The AEC industry will realize the data optimization, but this will not come true instantaneously, and this might be a long journey so that it can be ten years, 20 years or a half-century. Haste makes waste, so nothing should go in a rush. The human beings already finished a lot of amazing pioneering works in 10,000 years, which is an extremely short period for the Earth, which is about 4.5 billion years old. Bill said in the presentation that we are fortunate for living now because many exciting things are happening. Future will be here, and the future will never be far away from us. 

Works cited:

Allen, Bill. “The Future of BIM Will Not Be BIM—and It's Coming Faster than You Think.” YouTube, uploaded by Autodesk University, 23 November 2016,   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xq6yKyauu-o

Comments:


Matt Mullen:

I agree with you that the VR walkthrough will be more popular than the 3D printing models in the future. One is because the VR will cost less money and the 3D printing models might create wastes. The other reason is that the 3D printed model is a static model and VR is an intuitionistic digital model, so if the model needs any change, VR walkthrough model is only going to change the alternative part while the 3D model is going to be rebuilt entirely.



Gabriel Grajewski:

I agree with you because I believe that to realize the data optimization will take a long time for the AEC industry, but I do not have an exact idea about how long it will be. Although they are progressing the data manipulation, the data gathering is still the central part of the AEC industry. Many examples, which Bill provided in the presentation, were the underlying ideas and samples. Therefore, the data optimization is not easy to be realized in only ten years.



Jenny Fretta:

Like you, I doubt that 3D printing will be used to construct an entire building ten years later. Because of the limitation of the materials, the development of the 3D-printing technique for the building was not fast in the past ten years. The limitation of the materials will still be a problem either before founding or creating new material or another printing method. Although the improving speed is ideal, the progress of it never stops. The road is 3D printable now, so it is sure that 3D printing will assist a lot for the construction in the future.